Sunday, July 18, 2010

Iraq, the Modern Day Crusades?

I had a discussion this weekend regarding the war in Iraq. The individual tried to justify the war based on their belief that Islam is a religion of war and violence, and that the war was going to protect Christians from Islamic persecution. They compared the war today with the Crusades of centuries ago.

I then asked a simple question:

If this war is supposed to protect Christians from Islam, then why is our military defending Sharia law in Iraq?

Article 2 of the Iraq constitution states:

First, Islam is the official religion of the State, and is a foundation source of all legislation.

A. No law may be enacted that contradicts the established provisions of Islam.


I also reminded this individual which presidents state department helped draft that constitution...

The debate ended in utter silence.

My favorite Stefan Molyneux two minute spiel

The state is a agency of coercion, the government takes money through force, through taxation, the government steals form the future through national debts, the government uses force to impose its will on everyone. As long as we view the government as some semi-paternal benevolent agency that’s there to help and protect us, we are going to keep running into its proposed solutions. Until and unless we can see that the government as an agency of violence, that the government points guns at people to get things done, until we can see the government as the gun in the room. We will not be able to put down the gun in the room and begin to explore voluntary and peaceful ways of helping those who are in need, the poor , the sick, the old.

Until and unless we can see the violence inherit in the system that we live under. We will not be able to put down that gun and begin negotiating like civilized human beings about how we are going to solve social problems, and stop attempting to pass laws and regulations which throw people in jail, which steal money from people. Violence will never solve problems, violence will only and forever profit the few at the expense of the many. Seem to solve things in the present while creating more problems down the road. So until we can see the gun in the room and put it down things are going to get worse and worse and worse. Until we let go of our addiction to violence in solving problems, which will never ever solve problems at all.

Friday, July 2, 2010

Next Meeting - Thursday 7/8/10

The next meeting will be:

Thursday July 08, 2010
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan

Discussing Stephan Kinsella's Against Intellectual Property (concentrating on pp 45 - 61) and Eric Garris' interview of Alan Grayson (posted below).

http://antiwar.com/radio/2010/06/29/alan-grayson-2/
Scott Horton Interviews Alan Grayson June 29, 2010
This interview was conducted by Antiwar.com director Eric Garris.

Florida Congressman Alan Grayson discusses building Congressional support for his “War is Making You Poor” bill, bipartisan cooperation with Ron Paul on the “Audit the Fed” bill, why it’s harder than ever to justify the continuing war in Afghanistan, Obama’s broken campaign promises and disappointing leadership and why Grayson has become the top target of Republicans for the 2010 House elections.

MP3 here. (19:01)

Congressman Alan Grayson was born and grew up in the Bronx neighborhood of New York City. He graduated with high honors from Harvard College, worked as an economist, then returned to Harvard. In four years, Alan earned a J.D. with honors from Harvard Law School, a master’s degree from the Harvard School of Government, and finished all of the course work and passed the general exams for a Ph.D. in Government. His master’s thesis focuses on gerontology. He went on to be a founding member of the Alliance for Aging Research.

In the early 1990s Alan took leave from the practice of law and started a business. He was the first President of IDT Corp., a telecom/internet company, which is now a Fortune 1000 company, traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

Congressman Grayson was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008, serving Florida’s 8th district.

Totally unrelated to the next meeting, but it's been a month since I've bragged.  I am kicking ass in this year's market predictions.  The Dow and the S&P 500 didn't rise quite as high as I predicted, they may end up lower than I predicted, and gold may end up higher than I predicted, but compared to the rest of the predictions, I'm spot on.  Especially my prediction that the Shanghai Index bubble will pop.  Down 26% so far this year.  Richard is once again being beat by a girl (which is really sad considering the girl predicted Dow 14,000).

Thursday, June 24, 2010

US Social Forum

Due to the fact that I never watch the news, I was completely unaware that the US Social Forum was being held in Detroit and Tuesday afternoon 10,000 people marched through the streets of Detroit to kick off the festivities. 

This excerpt from a Democracy Now report grabbed my attention for two reasons.  One, the atrocious grammar and how stupid the person sounded (though that ends up being a factor of transcribing a live on the street interview and she sounds much closer to average intelligence in the video) and two, the comparison to New Orleans.
I’m here in Detroit with the Restaurant Opportunities Center of New Orleans, Louisiana. When I came to Detroit, I was kind of surprised, because Detroit looks a lot like New Orleans, in such a state of disrepair, with so many abandoned buildings. And I was shocked by that. You know, I didn’t realize it. I know that there were some financial difficulties, but it’s such a similarity. And it’s sad that across our country we still have the same sort of disproportionate disparities, you know, and it’s a little frightening.  (http://www.democracynow.org/2010/6/23/over_10_000_march_in_detroit)

Detroit looks like New Orleans, a city wiped out by a freakin hurricane.  Unfortunately the attendees of this idiotic forum will never understand that it is a result of all the government programs they're pushing that has caused this. 

Monday, June 21, 2010

Government thugs

Currently I am at my BF's house while he is at work. Moments ago the doorbell rang. I ignored it. It rang again. I thought it might be important so I opened the door hesitantly.

There was an intimidating-looking man who flashed a government badge at me. I supposed he was from the census, as the BF has not participated in even the head count and has been visited by the census once already. Instead, he grunted, "US Customs and Immigration Enforcement."

"Oh! Woah!," I babbled, or some such nonsense, because I was immediately intimidated by his intimidating-ness. Apparently I looked as frightened as I felt because he said, in a much more friendly fashion and with a slight laugh, "Don't worry, it's okay." (This made me realize that I need to work on remaining calm and collected when in engaging in any 'friendly chat' with a government agent. I know that you should never talk to the police, etc., but it is hard to respond calmly in a real situation, for the government workers do hold the power.)

He asked if I knew the neighbor Phil. I said "No, I don't live here." He left. Then he walked across the street to another house where a man was outside working on his truck. The agent talked to him for less than a minute and seemed to get no information.

Government thugs are on the prowl...

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Buying politicians who can grant you a legal monopoly

If the facts of this Detroit Free Press article are true, Matty Moroun is far from the kind of entrepreneur I admire. Rather, he is like James Taggart from "Atlas Shrugged": a leech who uses government power in his favor, and a bully who buys lobbyists to continue working in his favor.

Evil = a state using public money to build a bridge
Evil = a private individual buying off politicians to vote against a bridge, when that new bridge would remove his monopoly over US-Canada border traffic

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Garden

Probably should have done so a month ago, but I expanded the garden today.  Now I have lettuce and peppers in addition to my one non-producing raspberry plant.  For the time involved, I don't really see this as saving a lot of money but we shall see.  If you're doing this Alpha Strategy stuff on the level of Jack Spirko it's probably worthwhile, but I'm not sure on a small scale.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

The Senseless - an update

It was a dark and stormy night. Actually, it was a bright and sunny afternoon and I was sitting here eating dinner. Suddenly there was a knock on my door. Since I have no friends and I hate being interrupted during dinner, I ignored it. The person knocked again. Since I hadn't heard a car drive up I figured it was the neighbor boy coming for his payment for mowing my lawn. I made the mistake of answering the door. It was... a big ugly old census man! He breathed loudly, had a beard, and looked like he couldn't walk 1/4 mile to save his life. In other words, he was your ideal government employee.

He told me he was from The Census Bureau and had "a few questions that shouldn't take you no more'n' 5 minutes."

First he asked me to verify my address. Rather, he did not know what my address was. He had a stack of forms-- because apparently lots of people on my street didn't mail back a response-- and asked me which of the addresses was mine. "Is this [house #1] or [house #2]," he asked. I did answer that question.

Then he gave me a paper that included instructions for how to answer his questions. He asked me how many people lived here as of April 1st and if any of them lived elsewhere or had another address. I was polite in answering these so he seemed surprised when I would not tell him my name. He said, "Ya know, yer' required by law to answer these questions." I said, "No, I'm required to participate in the head count and that is all." Then I smiled sweetly. He said, looking puzzled, "Ya know, another lady just told me that!" He wrote, in big letters, REFUSED on the bottom of the page.

I proceeded with his questions politely, but would not answer much else. He asked for my birthdate and I said I would tell him the year but not the exact date. Then he said, "Yer gonna hafta do the math for me on that" in regards to figuring out my age. Then he said, "You know, you include more information than this on the IRS form." There are so many things I could have said in response, but I remained silent. He wrote REFUSED on the bottom of that page.

He told me that his supervisors were going to send him back to my house in a few weeks since I was not participating fully. I said that I understood that he was just doing his job and fulfilling his job expectations, but that I would not provide any additional information a second time around so it would be futile to come back. He said, "They'll send me back anyway."

Next he asked my race. I said "only Caucasian." He asked if I was Hispanic. I said no. He said, "Yeah, they're asking this so they can get more money for the Hispanics for going to school." Thrilling.

Then he had to check a series of boxes asking if I lived elsewhere during the year due to college, military, nursing home, etc. I said "just check no for all of those." He said he was required to read them to me individually.

Then he said, "I don't suppose you'd be willing to provide your phone number." This guy was perceptive.

He then told me that he would have to ask my neighbors to be proxies and have them answer the questions about me. Luckily, my neighbors know nothing about me except my first name and that I am that mean lady who always yells at their barking dogs to shut-up.

Finally the guy thanked me for my time and drove away to my neighbor's house all of 50 feet away.

Two thoughts:
1. I should have come up with wacky answers but in the spur of the moment I never think of witty responses.
2. For safety reasons, I should have told him at least 2 people lived here. :-( If he comes back that's what I'll say. It could be funny to give different answers than last time and say "Yes, I forgot that another person was living here on April 1st." More likely, I just won't answer the door again.

Monday, May 17, 2010

Government site accepts donations to pay down debt

This is hilarious.
https://www.pay.gov/paygov/forms/formInstance.html?nc=1271991815942&agencyFormId=23779454
"Welcome to the United States Treasury's site for making donations to help reduce the public debt. If you would like to make a donation, please fill in the required fields
and click the Submit Data button when completed."
"Thank you for your contribution which will be deposited to the account "Gifts to Reduce the Public Debt." Your contribution is accepted under the provisions of 31 U.S.C. 3113 which authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to accept conditional gifts to the United States for the purpose of reducing the public debt."

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Census Update

A census worker stopped by a few weeks ago.  He started his spiel and I told him one person lives here.   We went back and forth for about a minute:

"I'm just doing as instructed" he'd say.

To which I'd reply, "Yes I know that, but all you need to know is one person lives here.  You have the census info you need, take it to your employers."

"Just a few questions that will take 10 to 15 minutes."

"I'm sorry but I don't have 10 minutes (which was true since I was rushing to get ready and leave the house for a meeting), one person lives here."

A week or two later there was a "sorry we missed you" census slip in my door with a phone number to call to answer the questions.  I threw it away.

I was reminded of this today while reading a tax preparer bulletin board I frequent.
http://www.thetaxbook.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15152

To my surprise and amazement, many posters were stating they were basically telling the census employees to take a hike.  Tax preparers as a group tend to claim they hold small govt views but are really large govt hacks.  Seeing a large number of them rebel against the census was pleasantly shocking.

A couple of interesting comments made in the thread regarding safety.  I don't think I need to make further commentary on the quotes:

1.  How do we know who these people are - except they are to have "badges" I am not passing out "personal info"
2.  they are anyone who applies for the job. No background check or criminal history check to my knowledge.

Of course a few people posted the "OMG take off the tinfoil hats this is just the census" type comments but those seem to be in the minority.  Maybe we're not doomed.

But then again maybe we are.  The following excerpts are a bit troubling:

"I asked her what I was legally obligated to answer other than 'two people and we're both American'. No answer to that and her reply was that if I did not supply her with the answers, the Census Bureau would ask three of my neighbors and get the answers from them. This questioning session ended badly at this point!"

"I asked the gal that showed up a simple question, which was what I was legally obligated to answer and she got in my face with the crack about getting the info from the neighbors. The crack about the neighbors threw me over. One of my 'three neighbors' was visited by her later that night."

"This year for an educational experience, I took the Census test and was offered a temp job as an enumerator. I have been going around my little town trying to complete questionnaires. I have yet to meet anyone that flat out refused to answer the questions. It is true that if you refuse to answer any of the questions, we are obligated to get the answers from a proxy such as a neighbor."

Friday, May 14, 2010

Next Meeting - Monday 05/24/10

The next meeting will be:

Monday May 24, 2010
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan

We will discuss Stefen Molyneux's 4 part series on IP listed below and Chapter 12 of Keynes' General Theory:  The State of Long-term Expectation.

If you click on the numbered links, you will go to the search results for that podcast.  To hear the podcast, click on "Open Link" under the picture of chain link.  Or if the cut and paste works, you should be able to open the mp3 by clicking on "Open Link" below.

164. Intellectual Property Rights Part 1: Challenges - Why do we even have a problem? Hmmm, could that be the acrid stench of state power I smell?   Open Link
 
165. Intellectual Property Rights Part 2: Justice - How the media created its own problems with regards to property rights  Open Link

166. Intellectual Property Rights Part 3: Solutions - How an anarchistic society deals with intellectual property   Open Link

178. Emails of the Week Apr 5 06 - Corporations and Intellectual Property - My responses to brilliant listener criticisms!   Open Link


Our original plan for General Theory was to read chapters 1, 12, 22, 24.  Chapter one was chosen because it states the General Theory.  Chapters 12 & 24 were chosen based on the Wikipedia entry for General Theory http://sn.im/w84wz.  Chapter 22 was chosen because NewEdit thought it looked interesting.

Instead of reading the whole book we decided to read these selected chapters because the book looked tediously dull and boring as well as totally worthless.  Certain individuals, who will remain unnamed so as to not embarrass Richard, are having difficulty understanding this concept and believe it is impossible to understand chapter 12 without reading chapters 1 to 11.  This theory is hogwash. 

So far we have read the preface to the German edition, chapter 1, half of chapter 2, and part of chapter 12.  Having read these selections, our greatest fears have been realized.  This book is totally worthless.  Keynes is a fucking idiot.  Most of us also agree that Gary North's http://KeynesProject.com is a waste of time that will have absolutely no impact on the world & society.  We wish Richard well in his endeavor to read this worthless trash but will not be joining him. 



In regards to my April 19th prediction of a market correction, contradicting Richard & Xorps predictions of continued stock market rises, I would like to point out the accuracy of my prediction by mentioning that from my prediction on 4/19 to 5/6 the market did in fact correct by dropping 11%.

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Yay! I'm being sued.

Well, not really.  At least not yet.

GoodAccountants.com doesn't like my flippant use of the term "crooks" while referring to them on an internet bulletin board.  Kind of long, but full details at http://www.taxalmanac.org/index.php/Discussion:GoodAccountans.com_-_anyone_have_insights%3F

Monday, April 19, 2010

Next Meeting - Thursday 04/29/10

Thur April 29, 2010
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan

After the rousing success of General Theory chapters 1 & 2, at the next meeting we will be discussing Chapter 12:  The State of Long-term Expectation.  We will also discuss Stefan Molyneux's interview of Stephan Kinsella on Intellectual Property.


Though not relevant to the next meeting, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict contrary to Rich & Xorp's contentions that the stock market will continue to rise, we are near the end of the current bear market bull run.  Stocks will soon correct.

Flash mobs and riots

The media blackout on this is almost as bad as the lack of coverage over the Ron Paul campaign.

In several big cities, including Philadelphia and Kansas City, flash mobs and riots instigated by "youths" have been taking place.

In Kansas City this weekend, and to a lesser degree the previous weekend:
- 900+ black kids aged 11-16 stormed an outdoor mall, fought with each other, beat up all the shoppers, and robbed the stores. The newscasters in this clip are irrelevant but there is some remarkable cell phone footage of the fights. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_2W_EbIN9o Since most of the "youths" are too young to drive (but since when has the law prevented miscreants from hijacking cars?), many of them came in by bus. Cops eventually called in helicopters.
A city council member said, "There's really no place in town that African-American kids can go and feel welcome." No matter what the race, do we think 900 thugs ought to be welcomed anywhere?

In Philadelphia this has been happening on a regular basis for nearly a year:
- Big group of teens rob convenience store http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDxoTpdxBWE
- 100s of teens fight with each other, knock down pedestrians, and rob Macy's http://cbs3.com/topstories/Center.City.Macys.2.1499306.html
- 100s of teens fight and ransack South Street http://cbs3.com/local/Police.Respond.Thousands.2.1579054.html
- South Street riots with 1000+ people, causing stores and restaurants to close early. Incredible video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4WOYMWp29g&feature=fvw
- Curfew implemented http://www.philly.com/inquirer/home_region/20100323_Officials_consider_earlier_curfews_to_stop__flash_mobs_.html curfew
- Cell phone footage that makes "Boyz N The Hood" look tame. They beat up on a car with a driver in it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMWT41Pu3tM If I was the driver I would have seriously run those m*therf*ckers over at 70 MPH in self-defense. The thug who posted this video subtitled it "GETTIN SOUTH ST POPPIN," and another one he subtitled "WE AT SOUTH STREET GETTIN IT POPPIN." Apparently riots are just such "popping" fun! Under an alternative screen name (you'll know it when you see it... think Randianism) I have posted a viciously hateful comment to that scumbag. He also has a bunch of other equally atrocious and terrifying videos glorifying the mobs. It is hard to imagine this is real. Another comment is here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64INNh-FRuo

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Next Meeting - Thursday April 15

Under the theory that it is easy to read people you agree with, we decided to study a book of John Maynard Keynes.   The choices being Treatise on Money and General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, we decided on General Theory.  Wikipedia states (http://sn.im/pyw8z):
Although The General Theory was written in the aftermath of the Great Depression and was taken by many to justify the assumption by government of the responsibility for the achievement and maintenance of full employment, it is for the most part a highly abstract work of theory and by no means a tract on policy. Its full meaning and significance continues to be debated even today. As a book, it is a difficult read for a modern student of economics, although it is enlivened by some brilliant rhetorical passages, including the description of the stock market in Chapter 12 and the concluding chapter 24 on the (rather tentative) policy implications Keynes derived from his theory.
Since the book looks tediously dull and worthless, we will read chapters 1, 12, 22, 24 and the preface to the German edition.  The book can be found at:

http://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/general-theory/
or
http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/k/keynes/john_maynard/k44g/

The ebooks.adelaide.edu version includes the preface to the German edition.

For the meeting on the 15th, we will discuss the preface, chapter 1, and Gary North's address on Keynes' influence at the ASC 2010 conference. 



An audio only version of North's address can be heard at http://media.mises.org/mp3/ASC2010/07_ASC2010_North.mp3

Saturday, March 20, 2010

My response to an Article in The Atlantic

Hello all,
Please read my response to an article in The Atlanic, "How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America."
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2010/03/how-a-new-jobless-era-will-transform-america/7919/

Please comment and let me know how I did.


Dear Don,
I thoroughly enjoyed your article in The Atlantic, “How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America,” My wife and I discussed it during a car ride home from a writing conference. We often discuss the economy and the direction of the country as a whole. Your article pretty much confirmed what we thought, that the country will not just bounce back from this recession/depression.

I must disagree with your suggestions for the resolving the crisis. I think that your suggestion to be biased more towards doing too much rather than too little in the face of the deficit is rather short sighted. Throughout history, civilizations have collapsed because of financial crises. From the biblical Joseph, “the money went bad,” to the Weimar Republic, we have clear examples of what happens when governments try to inflate their way out of trouble.

Perhaps our opinions differ because of our understandings of economics. I am a student of the Austrian school. In general, the school teaches that recessions and even depressions are necessary to clear the mistakes made during the credit induced boom. This is very similar to the Redwood trees in California, whose seeds only germinate after a fire. In our ignorance we try to stop the fires to save the forest, while we are killing the forest in the long run. The same is true with an economic downturn- by trying to stop it, we ensure that it will linger.

Sadly there is no easy way or quick fix to get us out of this morass. In my opinion, our only salvation will be to tighten our belts, work harder, and try to pay back the debts that we have incurred- collectively and individually. My fear is that the common misconception from the depression- that WWII ended the downturn-will encourage our leaders to instigate another “great” war to tackle the economic problems. I hope my fears are unfounded.
Regards,

Mark Christian


P.S. If you would like to learn about the Austrian School of Economics please visit www.mises.org

Friday, March 12, 2010

Census

Today in the mail I received a letter from the Census Bureau.

It says: "Dear Resident: About one week from now, you will receive a 2010 Census form in the mail."

Leave it to the the government to send a letter telling us it is going to send another letter. Why do things efficiently when being inefficient "creates more jobs" and "spreads the work?"

Think of the:
- loggers who must cut down a bunch of trees to make all these papers
- paper manufacturers
- printers
- mailmen (I mean postal professionals, of course)
- garbage collectors or recyclers who must get rid of this junk mail
- computer programmers who make data-collection software
- census workers who type in the data
- census workers who come knock on your door when you don't fill out the form.

I hereby declare that the census is quite a brilliant idea.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

City of Troy shutting down (partly)

The $1.9 million millage was voted down last week, meaning that the library, museum, nature center, community center (fitness, aquatic, community programs), and community affairs department (local TV station) will be closed down this year.

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Next Meeting - Friday 03/05/10

Friday March 5, 2010
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan

Discussing chapter 22-24 of Henry Hazlitt's Economic in One Lesson, the questions on the corresponding study guide, and Jack Spirko's Survival Podcast #374 (click the play button to listen).

icon for podpress  Episode-374- Time to Plan [69:49m]
We have looked at some dark subjects lately, we will look at more soon but let’s put a positive subject in today that focuses more on what we can do rather than why we need to do it.

Friday, February 12, 2010

2010 Predictions

An update to our 2010 Predictions


NewEd
Craig
Dave
Xorp
Eric













Gold 1200
1300
1400
1125
1100

Oil  125
100
100
79
70

DJIA 14k
13k
9-10k
11.2k
9500

S&P 1200


1000
1300
950

Nasdaq



2000





Inflation










Unemployment  < 10%
9-9.5%


7
12ish



























12/31/09
Alltime High






Gold
1096.20
1226.00
Oil 
79.36
147.27
DJIA
10428.05
14279.96
S&P
1115.10
1576.09
Nasdaq
2269.15
5132.52
Inflation 
2.7


Unemployment 
10












New Edit
DOW will end the year at 14,000. The masses will believe that Obama has saved us all. He will use every opportunity to tell us so.
However, unemployment will remain as it is in real values. There will be no real job growth. The government unemployment data will appear lower (I'll guess 7%) due to the people who have been on unemployment assistance for too long getting kicked off.
S&P will end at 1200.
Gold will drop near 1000, rise to 1200 during the summer, and stay around 1100 at the end of the year.
Nasdaq - I don't follow enough to know.
Oil will rise to 125 during summer.


Craig
DJIA-13k due to inflation.
S/P-don't follow.
Nasdaq-don't follow to close either.
Gold-1300 (inflation wise)
Oil-100
Unemployement: Nation 9.0-9.5%
Unemployement Michigan: 14.5-15%


Dave
Stocks and the dollar will continue to rally in the beginning of the year.
S&P will rise to 1300, then drop to 1000.
Dow will rise to 12k, drop to 9-10k.
Nasdaq rise to 2500, drop to 2000.
Oil will continue to rise and will definitely exceed 100 during the year (obviously it will skyrocket if the US or Israeli govt bombs Iran).
Gold not drop below $1000. Hits $1400.
Japanese stocks will start an uptrend in 2010 being one of the best investments of the decade.
Natural gas will do well in 2010
Interest rates will increase. US Treasurys will drop.
Shanghei index could be a bubble to pop in 2010


Xorp
dow30 - 11,200
s&p500 - 1,300
Oil - $79
Gold - $1,125


Eric    
Gold: $1100    
Oil:  $70    
DJIA: 9500   
S&P: 950   
Nasdaq: no guess
Inflation: no guess   
Unemployment: both Gov't numbers and real numbers will rise by a couple percent

The dollar index will strengthen slightly this year while stocks, oil, real estate, Government bonds, and gold will correct downward.  My feeling is that in 2010 an investor should feel lucky to preserve capital and forget about making capital gains.  I expect this to be a year in which every investment category drops.  Here's why,  some more of the dodgy debts of the boom will default.  Central banks for be inclined to print money as it is one of the only solutions they have left.  But the nominal value of most asset classes will decline because the money supply will shrink due to imploding debts faster than the central banks run the printing press.  Of course this will eventually change and the central banks will produce hyperinflation and then the government will start another war to channel the anger of populace outward.  The best investment in the years ahead will be the time spent in taking better care of your health and strengthening your relationships with friends and family.


Richard
Due to atrocious accuracy in his 2009 predictions and embarrassment being beat by a girl, he stated he will make predictions in December.


Scott
Being Canadian, has not made any predictions.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Favorite mainstream news headline of the week

Snow shuts down federal government, life goes on

"If snow keeps 230,000 government employees home for the better part of a week, will anyone notice?"

Saturday, February 6, 2010

We Are Doomed - Feb 5th edition

My nephew, a freshman at U of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, recently joined the facebook event 3.3.10 Spread The Word To End The Word.  Spread the Word is a campaign by the Special Olympics to end the "hate speech" of people using the word "retarded".  I left the following comment including the wikipedia link showing the futility of this campaign:

If you spent your time and energy on something less politically correct you'd end up having a bigger impact on the world.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euphemism#Words_describing_disability.2Fhandicap

He responded:

um...end the rword has a huge impact on the world you have no idea waht your talking about and i no about idiot and moron and stuff thats not the point the point is "retarded" dosent mean mentally disabled it means slow what we are trying to do it remind people that the things we say can be extremely hurtful to others...and y wud anyone WANT to hurt someone? and why y anyone WANT to down on someone trying to prevent others from getting hurt?

Ill spend my time as i please thx

I refrained from replying, "You write like a retard" even though that reply made me laugh.  The kid isn't a great student, but he's not an idiot (in spite of what the writing sample above indicates).  I believe this country is doomed.

Friday, February 5, 2010

2010 Predictions

 A bit late in posting, but here are our predictions for 2010.  Not sure how to easily post a table to blogger, so hopefully this is readable.



NewEd
Craig
Dave
Xorp
12/31/09
Alltime High












Gold 1200
1300
1400
1125
1096.20
1226.00
Oil 125
100
100
79
79.36
147.27
DJIA 14k
13k
 9-10k
 11.2k
10428.1
 14279.96
S&P 1200


1000
1300
1115.1
1576.09
Nasdaq



2000


2269.15
5132.52
Inflation 










Unemp. < 10%
9-9.5%


7





New Edit
DOW will end the year at 14,000. The masses will believe that Obama has saved us all. He will use every opportunity to tell us so.
However, unemployment will remain as it is in real values. There will be no real job growth. The government unemployment data will appear lower (I'll guess 7%) due to the people who have been on unemployment assistance for too long getting kicked off.
S&P will end at 1200.
Gold will drop near 1000, rise to 1200 during the summer, and stay around 1100 at the end of the year.
Nasdaq - I don't follow enough to know.
Oil will rise to 125 during summer.


Craig
DJIA-13k due to inflation.
S/P-don't follow.
Nasdaq-don't follow to close either.
Gold-1300 (inflation wise)
Oil-100
Unemployement: Nation 9.0-9.5%
Unemployement Michigan: 14.5-15%


Dave
Stocks and the dollar will continue to rally in the beginning of the year.
S&P will rise to 1300, then drop to 1000.
Dow will rise to 12k, drop to 9-10k.
Nasdaq rise to 2500, drop to 2000.
Oil will continue to rise and will definitely exceed 100 during the year (obviously it will skyrocket if the US or Israeli govt bombs Iran).
Gold not drop below $1000. Hits $1400.
Japanese stocks will start an uptrend in 2010 being one of the best investments of the decade.
Natural gas will do well in 2010
Interest rates will increase. US Treasurys will drop.
Shanghei index could be a bubble to pop in 2010


Xorp
dow30 - 11,200
s&p500 - 1,300
Oil - $79
Gold - $1,125



Richard
Due to atrocious accuracy in his 2009 predictions and embarrassment being beat by a girl, he stated he will make predictions in December.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Even Associated Press admits road stimulus didn't help unemployment

Interesting to see this coming from mainstream news:
Ten months into President Barack Obama's first economic stimulus plan, a surge in spending on roads and bridges has had no effect on local unemployment and only barely helped the beleaguered construction industry, an Associated Press analysis has found.

Saturday, December 26, 2009

Xmas in Detroit!

A great video representation of Detroit's socialist nightmare.



While wild bears have been spotted in SE Michigan, I believe Crowder is mistaken about bears being spotted within the city limits of Detroit. Otherwise this video rocks.

edit:
Not sure the embedded player is working. The original url is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hhJ_49leBw

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Anyone surprised?

U-M researchers say politics guided bank bailout allocations

What the article does not point out is that these researchers are also government employees.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Pod-cast on intellectual property.

I would like to suggest the following link regarding intellectual property for our next Pod-cast.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Detroit unemployment

According to this article in the Detroit News, the unemployment rate is actually almost 50% once you factor in part-time workers, those who've given up looking, and those who have gone back to school because they can't find jobs.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Next Meeting - Thursday 12/17/09

Thursday December 17, 2009
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan

Discussing chapter 8 & 9 of Henry Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson, the questions on the corresponding study guide, Modern Day Protectionism by Vedad Krehic, and Jack Spirko's Survival Podcast #327

Once again I picked the podcast unheard, but I have since given it a cursory listening. I have never listened to one of his "listener questions" show and am pleasantly surprised by this one. Spirko does a good job of making himself look reasonable and not a conspiracy theorist nutjob. None of the topics are discussed in great depth. That doesn't seem to be a drawback other than the 401k question which leaves some things unanswered in my mind. The podcast and topics discussed are below. Spirko's "housekeeping" runs long this episode, so you can skip the first 7 minutes before getting into the actual questions & answers.

icon for podpress Episode-327- Listener Questions for 12-01-09 [52:06m]:
  • What is better a well and private septic or city water and sewer or both
  • What do I think of Bob Chapman’s latest predictions
  • Will the government ever try to go after 401K earnings by changing the rules
  • Is buying land today buying “stolen land”
  • Thoughts on using paint cans for food storage
  • What to plant on remote land
  • Are the prices at coinflation the “spot price”
  • Setting a gun argument between a husband and wife, is there a cut and dry answer

Sunday, December 6, 2009

Another side effect of government intervention

One function of the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act was to limit interest rates that the lenders could charge. This apparently cut in to credit card company profits.
In response, they are increasing and introducing other fees, including an account inactivity fee.

Everyone who voted for the Act failed at learning Economics in One Lesson: "The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy..."

I wonder how long it will be before someone proposes a new bill to prevent credit card companies from charging these fees.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Mainstream media admits that health care bill is robbery

We've been saying this all along, but this is the first time I've seen mainstream media so blatantly admit that the health care bill is robbery:

"Affordable insurance key for young adults" - Medill News Service via Detroit Free Press

WASHINGTON -- The young invincibles. That's what the insurance industry calls the 13.7 million Americans younger than 30 who don't have health insurance because, they firmly believe, they just don't need it.

In the debate over health care, lawmakers and the health care industry agree that persuading this demographic to jump into the insurance pool is important because they're healthy and don't need costly medical care. Their premiums would help subsidize older, less healthy people, thereby bringing down average costs. That's one of the reasons why the health care bills circulating in Congress would require most Americans to get health insurance.

But for young adults to make the leap, experts said, Congress needs to focus more on affordability.

Young adults are more likely than people in other age groups to work low-wage, entry-level jobs that don't offer health insurance, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. As a result, Americans 19 to 29 have the highest uninsured rate in the United States.

This contradiction is sickening.
Paragraph 1: Healthy people generally don't need health insurance.
Paragraph 2: Therefore, they should pay for the unhealthy people.
Paragraph 3: But don't rob the healthy people TOO much-- just steal an "affordable" amount.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Next Meeting - Thursday 12/03/09

Our next meeting is scheduled for:
Thursday December 03, 2009
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan
Discussing chapter 6, 7, & 8 of Henry Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson, the questions on the corresponding study guide, and a Scott Horton's interview TBD. If time permits, maybe we'll discuss Vedad Krehic's "Modern Day Protectionism" and NewEdit's response.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Adjusted Monetary Base

FRED Graph

Yesterday RM noted that the monetary base is on a skyward trajectory once again, as the chart above shows (http://sn.im/tcd4t). The official reason being to boost the economy. RM's question was if all they have to do is print money to boost the economy, why was TARP needed a year ago. We agreed that it is all smoke & mirrors. This does not look good for the economy.

Another Prediction

At yesterday's meeting, Xorp predicted that Gold will drop in price during January. Somewhat of a broad prediction, but I'm still immortalizing his words here. Other than mentioning price manipulation by the IMF, he didn't divulge much of the reasoning behind the prediction.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Next Meeting: Thursday November 19, 2009

Our next meeting is scheduled for:
Thursday November 19, 2009
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan
Discussing chapters 4 & 5 of Henry Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson and the questions on the corresponding study guide as well as Scott Horton's interview of Tim Wise.

http://antiwar.com/radio/2009/10/23/tim-wise/
Scott Horton Interviews Tim Wise
October 23, 2009

Tim Wise, director of the movie Soldiers of Peace, discusses the worldwide outbreak of peace (really!), reconciliation of Christians and Muslims in Nigeria, ending the vicious cycle of tribal retribution, ranking the benevolence of nations with a Global Peace Index and how free trade and open communication decrease the likelihood of war.

MP3 here. (30:05)

Tim Wise is the director of the documentary movie Soldiers of Peace. Tim has freelanced for all the major news networks around the world focusing on ‘Hard Access’ news stories. From his base in London, where he lived for 10 years, Tim worked on a wide range of assignments for such networks as BBC TV, CH4 News, SABC South Africa, EOTV Holland, NHK Hong Kong, ABC Australia ‘Foreign Correspondent’ & ‘Four Corners”, WTN London, DRTV Denmark, Focus Germany, RTL and ZDF Germany.

During this time, Tim traveled to some of the most dangerous countries in the world including Iraq, Bosnia, Northern Sri-Lanka, East Timor, Liberia, Colombia, Southern Sudan, Burma and East India. He also did a series of filming stints working undercover from China, Kurdistan, Burma and Sri-Lanka.

In 2003 Tim was involved in the making of the international award-winning documentary ‘Child Soldiers’ for ABC TV Australia where he spent 2 weeks living with one of the child soldier units of the SPLA rebels of Southern Sudan. In Assam in East India Tim gained unprecedented access to the ULFA rebels, the first western journalist to ever do so in the 18 years that ULFA had been in existence. Tim was smuggled into their secret bases inside Bhutan and went out on operations with the rebels as they fought with the Indian Army. He was also smuggled inside Burma with the ABSDF student rebels while making an ABC Four Corners report.

Tim has also freelanced for the Award winning SBS TV show ‘Dateline’ where he reported from Northern Uganda covering the LRA rebels – The Lord’s Resistance Army of Joseph Kony, that has abducted over 30,000 children and forced boys as young as 10 into becoming child soldiers and girls to become porters, cooks and sex slaves for the top LRA commanders.

Tim is now the CEO of the documentary production company One Tree Films, which was established in 2006 with founder Steve Killelea. The core aims is to produce world-class documentaries focusing on social issues. Soldiers of Peace is their first film together.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Arguments against arguments against intellectual property

The recent article "Modern Day Protectionism" by Vedad Krehic speaks against patents and copyrights. As a group we previously talked about IP and seemed to agree that patents are unjustified. I still strongly favor copyrights*, though, and would like to present some brief responses to the arguments against IP. These aren't fully developed, but perhaps we could address this issue again at a future meeting if others are interested in the subject.

*By copyright I do not mean that a government agency would enforce copyrights. I mean that the artist has a natural right and rule over his IP.
Also, I am not interested in the utilitarian/"practical" argument that copyrights limit creative output, since that assertion is secondary to the moral argument.

1. The author indicates that taking a jacket without paying for it would be theft. However, he says that copying a CD of music is not theft, because the original CD still exists and still belongs to its owner. But this does not make sense to me, because a new copy of the property has been introduced:
Each jacket can only be worn and enjoyed by one person at one time. A jacket owner may sell his copy of the jacket, but then he can no longer wear that copy. Similarly, an individual could rightfully sell his copy of the CD, but then he would no longer be able to enjoy that CD. Now, if two people want the jacket, then the second person has to buy a copy of the jacket and pay its creator. The creator has now been paid to make two copies of the jacket. So if a second person wants to enjoy the CD, then the creator of the CD should get paid for two copies of that CD.
The author says, "If I walk into a store and leave with a jacket for which I have not paid then I have deprived the store's owner of his or her justly acquired, tangible property. They have one less jacket. They are directly harmed by my action."
Likewise, if you copy a CD, the creator has been deprived of one less copy to sell. Someone is getting value from the creator's work without paying the creator. The creator is directly harmed.

1a. Copying art seems to me to be like inflation of the money supply. Only one copy really exists for which the creator has been paid (only one ounce of gold really exists), but we proceed as though all the copies of that value have been accounted for (as though each federal reserve note actually represents something).
The author says, "The original CD is still my friend's property. I return it to him, and while he is no better or worse off than he was before, I am now better off." This sounds exactly like fractional reserve banking: you still have your original dollar, but now I have an extra dollar, too! Well, no, you don't. You've created false "value" out of nothing and proceeded as though no-one is harmed.

2. Those against copyrights often focus on tangible property. They seem to suggest that the value of the CD is in tangible property of the CD itself. But the value is in the sounds of the music. Note that no-one pays a premium for blank CDs or for books that say "alsjksl;jdfasklfjsak." Rather, what they are paying for is the music or the particular arrangement of words and ideas in the book. Many libertarians seem to not acknowledge that property other than physical property is a valid concept.

3. Many libertarians say that it is admissible to make private contracts about not copying art, but that that contract can't extend to a third party. For example, the author says, "It is possible that I could, for example, have made an agreement or contract with [my friend] when I borrowed the disc stating that I cannot copy it. If I were to do it anyway, I'd be in violation of a private agreement."
I see a discrepancy here. Either non-tangible things (music, text) can be property or they cannot. If they can be property, property rights apply. If they cannot be property-- as libertarians often seem to suggest when they focus on the physical plastic CD rather than on the music-- then this concession about private contracts doesn't hold because there would be no real property about which to make a contract. It would be an invalid contract because there would be no real property. So which is it? Either IP is property and is subjected to property rights (as I assert), or IP is not property and therefore you can't make private contracts about something that doesn't exist.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

The next meeting is scheduled for:
Thursday November 12, 2009
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan
Discussing chapters 1-3 of Henry Hazlitt's Economics in One Lesson and the questions on the corresponding study guide.

For the current podcast, we'll be discussing Jack Spirko's Survival Podcast #305 - You Can't Lose as a Modern Survivalist and Survival Blog's related article, Preparing for Uncertain Times--A Simple Guide to Getting Ready.

A big reason for picking podcast 305 is that I don't agree with a lot of Spirko's points and I totally disagree with Preparing for Uncertain Times. Maybe someone will be able to change my mind. While I find disagreement with much in podcast 305 and I agree with some of the assessments that Spirko's podcasts aren't very indepth, I think they are worthwhile. He's not a doomsayer claiming the end of the world is at hand and he seems to be implementing a decent version of the Alpha Strategy. Points in the podcast I disagree with include:
  • You can't be free if you have any debt
  • Credit cards are evil
  • Storing food always pays for itself
  • Survivalism creates a better life even if you never need to implement any of it
  • The bank owns your home if you have a mortgage (and related to this is the etymology of mortgage as "death grip"; the actual etymology is dead pledge)

icon for podpress Episode-305- You Can't Loose by as a Modern Survivalist: Hide Player | Play in Popup | Download

The number one question I get from non preparedness minded individuals when I tell them about The Survival Podcast is simply, why?

Why takes many forms such as…

  • Why do you worry about so many things you can’t control?
  • Why do I need to do anything different then I am doing now, I got this far OK, right?
  • Why should I spend money on things I may never need or even use?
  • Why should I sacrifice just to be “debt free” because “you’re no one unless you own money in the nation anyway”?
  • Why should I store food?
  • Why do I need a gun, we have a nice town and a great police force?
  • Why do you feel the need to be an alarmist?

Oh and that list of why’s goes on and on, I assure you. Yet I always answer every single why with the same answer, “because the way I do things my life is better even if nothing bad ever happens”.

Tune in today as we discuss this concept and thoughts on how…

  • Living debt free is the only way to have the freedom we all desire
  • Why most people tolerate things in their life they should never allow
  • Why tax is theft and why understanding it creates freedom
  • Why no matter what people say you do need to prepare for bad times
  • How the media and the government create plastic lifestyles that we choose to live within
  • Why storing food will always pay itself back even if you never have to rely on it directly
  • Why a garden is liberating and a financial gain
  • Why so many people that start to prep fail and fall out and how to change that

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Detroit's socialist nightmare is America's future

In yesterday's S&A Digest, Porter Stansberry had a great article describing the decline of Detroit. He goes on to describe how Detroit's history is now the country's future. Detroit use to be the 4th most populous city in America and on par culturally and economically with London, Paris, and New York. It's a short and easy read; I'd encourage you to take a look at it:

http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/3247/Porter_Stansberry

Political Anarchy is the solution for Detroit as well as the nation. Bill Bonner described a good starting point in A Depression – With a Capital ‘D’
Want to save Detroit? Here’s how:

Abolish all welfare of all sorts…no unemployment insurance…no child tax credits…no welfare…no foodstamps…no nothing, except privately-sponsored charities. Close the public schools. Kick out all the bureaucrats and all federal and state employees. Abolish all rules concerning employment – no minimum wages, no overtime, discriminate all you want. Require all residents to say please and thank you…dress properly…and sneer at people who don’t seem to be gainfully employed or polite. Declare the city an Open City and Free Trade Zone. In exchange for cutting all federal aid programs, eliminate federal and state taxes for people living in the city. Allow unlimited immigration into the city…giving all immigrants a U.S. passport after 5 years of residency. Levy a flat 10% tax to pay for basic services. Eliminate elections…have the city controlled by a town council composed of 10 citizens chosen at random.

Within five years, Detroit would be the most dynamic city in the nation.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Next Meeting - Thursday 10/20/09

Meetings have currently been switched to every other Thursday. So the next meeting is scheduled for:

Thursday October 29, 2009
5:30ish to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan

Discussing chapter 12 of America's Great Depression and Jack Spirko's Survival Podcast #293 - Economic Forecast.


http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/episode-293-economic-forecast-10-08-09
icon for podpress Episode-293- Economic Forecast 10-08-09 [51:04m]: Hide Player | Play in Popup | Download

So today we are going to discuss my view of what we can expect from the economy in the next few years and what we can do to prepare for it. I will tell you why I think 2010 is actually going to look pretty decent and on the other side why you shouldn’t take that much comfor in it. Then next week we will take a day to compare my view to the view of many of the experts such as Jim Rodgers and Gerald Celente.

Tune in today to hear…

  • Why I think we are about to see a fake recovery followed by a bigger crash
  • The stimulus doesn’t kick in until 2010, how it will succeed and how it will fail
  • Unemployment is “bottoming” the truth and the lies about that statement
  • This coming bubble and collapse is planned, I will explain why there is no other option then this one
  • Credit cards can’t fix a debt problem and how that relates to our national deficit
  • How the impact of Health Care won’t be seen until late 2011 perhaps longer and the disaster it will create
  • The coming 1.5 Trillion Dollar tax increase from the administration that promised not to do it
  • How high taxes reduce the amount of tax government collects and what it does to the economy
  • Why inflation looks like recovery at the beginning
  • Why you need to own at least some silver and or gold
  • Land is cheap, go make a low ball offer while you can
  • Store food, build your own grocery store at home
  • Spend smart don’t horde money, balance your assets
  • Place priority of spending on assets with long term value
  • Keep some cash, don’t believe the lies about putting all cash into gold right now
  • Debt is evil, always in good times and bad
  • Never be 100% invested in any item or investment type
  • Do not liquidate IRAs and 401ks modify their portfolios but leave the money in the vehicles
  • Above all never “freak out”, make smart and strategic spending and saving decision you do have time to act, don’t panic and react to swiftly to concerns

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Next Meeting

The next meeting is scheduled for:

Tuesday October 13, 2009
5:30ish to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan

Discussing chapter 11 of America's Great Depression and Scott Horton's interview of Rebecca Vilkomerson

Chapter 11: The Hoover New Deal of 1932


http://antiwar.com/radio/2009/09/18/rebecca-vilkomerson/
Scott Horton Interviews Rebecca Vilkomerson
September 18, 2009

Rebecca Vilkomerson, National Director of Jewish Voice for Peace, discusses the activist campaign to stop Caterpillar from selling bulldozers to Israel, what interested people can do to help promote peace, how the peace party can learn from the organizational and media saturation successes of the war party and the importance of criticizing anti-Semitism as well as those who misuse the charge (see MuzzleWatch).

MP3 here. (23:24)

Rebecca Vilkomerson is the National Director of Jewish Voice for Peace. She has over fifteen years of experience in community organizing, advocacy, program development and fundraising in the United States and Israel. In the U.S., she focused on economic justice issues, especially regarding women. She has been an active member of JVP since 2002, and lived in Israel with her family from 2006-2009.

Most recently, Rebecca worked for a Palestinian Israel public policy center and a Bedouin-Jewish environmental and social justice organization, as well as continuing her work as an activist for a just peace in Palestine and Israel. Her study, Public Policy in Divided Societies: The Case for a Civil Rights Institution was published in July, 2008 by Dirasat, the Arab Center for Law and Policy. She is also currently an editor of Jewish Peace News. Rebecca is a graduate of Connecticut College and has a Master’s Degree in Public Policy from Johns Hopkins University.