2011 Predictions

	Carrie		Dave		Dan		Ken		Eric		Rich
Gold	1,420		1,710		1,470		1,700		1,500		1,500
Silver	32		42		38		25		32
DJIA	12,000		12,400		12,650		9,000		11,500		9,500
S&P			1,420		1,330		950				1,150
Nasdaq			2,900		2,900		1,500		2,650
Oil - Brent Crude			130		122		110		80
Bank Failures	187		98		142		140				200
CPI inflation			7		6		9
Unemployment	7		9		9		7

                            

	Alltime High		12/31/10
Gold	1,442.60		1,420.85
Silver	49.45		30.91
DJIA	14,279.96		11,577.51
S&P	1,576.09		1,257.64
Nasdaq	5,132.52		2,652.87
Oil - Brent Crude	147.27		93.31

CARRIE
                           
"This year I will beat everyone, and even DW will have to admit that he was beaten by a girl... and not only that, but a Justin Bieber fan!"
                           
Dow - low 10000 // high 14500 //  end 12,000
Gold - falls in first quarter to 1265 // summer 1475 // end 1420
Silver - 32
Bank failures - 187   
Unemployment (government-reported value) - 7%           
Housing - falls to new lows
Detroit schools - they fail to take DW's suggestions and they suffer the consequences   
DAAG solves the problem of property rights and becomes world-famous. Carrie abhors being a celebrity and uses her new-found riches to buy a secluded forest in mid-Michigan.

                                                           
DAN
                           
Gold           1470       
Silver            38   
Dow          12650   
S&P            1330       
Nasdaq        2900       
Oil               122           
Bank Failures  142       
Inflation (CPI)   6%
Unemployment  9.2%       
DAAG Becomes a temporary political party. Wins every election; then disbands the government... The result? Everyone is SUPER happy and wants to live in the former USA. They end up calling it Real Utopia of America.


DAVE
                           
Dow: high 13,500  low 10000s           
S&P: high 1450   low in 1000s           
Gold will correct to around $1200 during the year
Japanese stocks will do well this decade
Natural gas will do well in 2011
Interest rates will increase.  US Treasurys will drop.
Detroit will declare bankruptcy   
Housing will offer good buys
Euro tanks   


ERIC
                           
Gold $1500, Silver $32, Oil $80  Euro at 1.10
Dow 11500 and Nasdaq 2650
I expect a general asset correction in next month or two in gold but especially industrial commodities.  China slow down keeps oil low.
US equity markets fall in 2011 but still out perform on a relative basis most other countries with possible exception of Japan.


KEN
                           
Bank closings: 140
Gold: $1700/toz
Silver: $25/toz
Oil: $110, but will reach $135 during the year.
U-3 unemployment: 7%
U-6: 17%
                           
IF: CPI-U (includes all items) stays < 5%
DOW: 13,000
SP500: 1400
NASDAQ: 3000
                           
CPI-U will reach 9% this year.  The Fed will stop pumping.
                           
DOW: 9,000
SP500: 950
NASDAQ: 1500


RICHARD
                           
Dow     9500
Russel   650
S&P     1150
Gold     1500
Bank Failures   200
Stagflation


1/3/11 Jim Cramer "I predict Alcoa will be the best performer in the S&P 500 in 2011."
I'd like to add to my predictions that Alcoa's stock (N:AA) will not have a good year.

2011 Predictions

DOW
Dave - high 13500, low 10000, end 12400
Carrie - high 14500, low 10000, end 12000
Richard - 9500
Eric - 11500
Dan - 12650
Ken - 9000

S&P
Dave - high 1450, low 1000, end 1420
Richard - 1150
Dan - 1330
Ken - 950

NASDAQ
Dave - 2900
Eric - 2650
Dan - 2900
Ken - 1500

RUSSEL
Richard - 650

GOLD
Dave - corrects to 1200, end 1710
Carrie - falls in first quarter to 1265, summer 1475, end 1420
Richard - 1500
Eric - 1500
Dan - 1470
Ken - 1700

SILVER
Dave - 42
Carrie - 32
Eric - 32
Dan - 38
Ken - 25

OIL
Dave - 130
Eric - 80
Dan - 122

Ken - will reach 135 during 2011, but will end at 110

EURO
Eric - 1.10

BANK FAILURES
Dave - 98
Carrie - 187
Richard - 200
Dan - 142
Ken - 140

INFLATION (CPI)
Dave - 7%
Dan - 6%
Ken - CPI-U 9%

UNEMPLOYMENT
Dave - 9%
Carrie - 7%
Dan - 9.2%

Ken - U3 7%

Ken - U6 17%

DAAG
Carrie - DAAG solves the problem of property rights and becomes world-famous.
Dan - DAAG becomes a temporary political party, wins every election, and disbands the government.

OTHER
Dave - Japanese stocks and natural gas will do well this decade. Interest rates will increase. US Treasurys will drop. Detroit will declare bankruptcy. Housing will start to offer good buys. Euro tanks.
Carrie - housing falls to new lows
Richard - stagflation
Eric - general asset correction in next month or two in gold but especially industrial commodities. China slow down keeps oil low. US equity markets fall in 2011 but still out perform on a relative basis most other countries with possible exception of Japan.

Ken - My predictions are based on the assumption that the Fed will stop pumping based on inflation concerns. If inflation stays low, I think we will see QE III, and the markets will end higher (Dow 13,000, S&P500 1400, NASDAQ 3000). But that is not what I am predicting for years end 2011.

Note: If inflation becomes a concern for the Fed, I see no reason why the Federal Reserve will allow debt to be inflated away. They serve the big banks, not us, or the treasury. The long T-bond will continue it's decline (disclosure - Ken has a large position in TBT).

---

Because we are a warm and tolerant bunch, we will accept late predictions up until the next meeting. Those who fail to make predictions by that time agree that they fail at life.

2010 Predictions

Predictions from a year ago:

	NewEd		Craig		Dave		Xorp		Eric
DJIA	14000		13000		9-10k		11200		9500
S&P	1200				1000		1300		950
Nasdaq					2000
Gold	1200		1300		1400		1125		1100
Oil	125		100		100		79		70
Unemployment	10%		9-9.5%				7

The year end actual:
 

	12/31/10		Winner
DJIA	11577.51		Xorp
S&P	1257.64		Xorp
Nasdaq	2652.87		Dave
Gold	1420.85		Dave
Oil	93.31		Craig & Dave
Unemployment	9.4		Craig

Taking three categories, the winner - Dave.

Tied for 2nd - Craig & Xorp.

Followed by NewEdit and coming in last (of those brave enough to make predictions) Eric.

One may argue that my 2000 prediction on the Nasdaq was way off.  However my full prediction was that the Nasdaq would rise to 2500 then fall to 2000.  The Nasdaq closed above 2500 on 4/14/10, hit 2530 on 4/23/10, then proceeded to drop to 2091 on 7/2/10.  After nailing my prediction, the Nasdaq went on a 500 point rampage the last four months of the year.  The Dow & S&P acted similarly, coming very close to hitting my predictions of 12000 & 1300 for highs and 9000s & 1000 for lows.

Though they weren't included in our predictions, there were 157 bank failures in 2010 compared to 140 in 2009 and 25 in 2008.

Next Meeting - Thursday 7/8/10

The next meeting will be:

Thursday July 08, 2010
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan

Discussing Stephan Kinsella's Against Intellectual Property (concentrating on pp 45 - 61) and Eric Garris' interview of Alan Grayson (posted below).

http://antiwar.com/radio/2010/06/29/alan-grayson-2/

Scott Horton Interviews Alan Grayson June 29, 2010

Email This | Print This | Share This | Comment | Antiwar Forum

This interview was conducted by Antiwar.com director Eric Garris.

Florida Congressman Alan Grayson discusses building Congressional support for his “War is Making You Poor” bill, bipartisan cooperation with Ron Paul on the “Audit the Fed” bill, why it’s harder than ever to justify the continuing war in Afghanistan, Obama’s broken campaign promises and disappointing leadership and why Grayson has become the top target of Republicans for the 2010 House elections.

MP3 here. (19:01)

Congressman Alan Grayson was born and grew up in the Bronx neighborhood of New York City. He graduated with high honors from Harvard College, worked as an economist, then returned to Harvard. In four years, Alan earned a J.D. with honors from Harvard Law School, a master’s degree from the Harvard School of Government, and finished all of the course work and passed the general exams for a Ph.D. in Government. His master’s thesis focuses on gerontology. He went on to be a founding member of the Alliance for Aging Research.

In the early 1990s Alan took leave from the practice of law and started a business. He was the first President of IDT Corp., a telecom/internet company, which is now a Fortune 1000 company, traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

Congressman Grayson was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008, serving Florida’s 8th district.

Totally unrelated to the next meeting, but it's been a month since I've bragged.  I am kicking ass in this year's market predictions.  The Dow and the S&P 500 didn't rise quite as high as I predicted, they may end up lower than I predicted, and gold may end up higher than I predicted, but compared to the rest of the predictions, I'm spot on.  Especially my prediction that the Shanghai Index bubble will pop.  Down 26% so far this year.  Richard is once again being beat by a girl (which is really sad considering the girl predicted Dow 14,000).

Next Meeting - Monday 05/24/10

The next meeting will be:

Monday May 24, 2010
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan

We will discuss Stefen Molyneux's 4 part series on IP listed below and Chapter 12 of Keynes' General Theory:  The State of Long-term Expectation.

If you click on the numbered links, you will go to the search results for that podcast.  To hear the podcast, click on "Open Link" under the picture of chain link.  Or if the cut and paste works, you should be able to open the mp3 by clicking on "Open Link" below.

164. Intellectual Property Rights Part 1: Challenges - Why do we even have a problem? Hmmm, could that be the acrid stench of state power I smell?   Open Link
 
165. Intellectual Property Rights Part 2: Justice - How the media created its own problems with regards to property rights  Open Link

166. Intellectual Property Rights Part 3: Solutions - How an anarchistic society deals with intellectual property   Open Link

178. Emails of the Week Apr 5 06 - Corporations and Intellectual Property - My responses to brilliant listener criticisms!   Open Link


Our original plan for General Theory was to read chapters 1, 12, 22, 24.  Chapter one was chosen because it states the General Theory.  Chapters 12 & 24 were chosen based on the Wikipedia entry for General Theory http://sn.im/w84wz.  Chapter 22 was chosen because NewEdit thought it looked interesting.

Instead of reading the whole book we decided to read these selected chapters because the book looked tediously dull and boring as well as totally worthless.  Certain individuals, who will remain unnamed so as to not embarrass Richard, are having difficulty understanding this concept and believe it is impossible to understand chapter 12 without reading chapters 1 to 11.  This theory is hogwash. 

So far we have read the preface to the German edition, chapter 1, half of chapter 2, and part of chapter 12.  Having read these selections, our greatest fears have been realized.  This book is totally worthless.  Keynes is a fucking idiot.  Most of us also agree that Gary North's http://KeynesProject.com is a waste of time that will have absolutely no impact on the world & society.  We wish Richard well in his endeavor to read this worthless trash but will not be joining him. 



In regards to my April 19th prediction of a market correction, contradicting Richard & Xorps predictions of continued stock market rises, I would like to point out the accuracy of my prediction by mentioning that from my prediction on 4/19 to 5/6 the market did in fact correct by dropping 11%.

Next Meeting - Thursday 04/29/10

Thur April 29, 2010
5:30 to 8:00 pm

Panera Bread
28551 Schoolcraft Road
Livonia, Michigan

After the rousing success of General Theory chapters 1 & 2, at the next meeting we will be discussing Chapter 12:  The State of Long-term Expectation.  We will also discuss Stefan Molyneux's interview of Stephan Kinsella on Intellectual Property.


Though not relevant to the next meeting, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict contrary to Rich & Xorp's contentions that the stock market will continue to rise, we are near the end of the current bear market bull run.  Stocks will soon correct.

2010 Predictions

An update to our 2010 Predictions

	NewEd		Craig		Dave		Xorp		Eric
Gold	1200		1300		1400		1125		1100
Oil	125		100		100		79		70
DJIA	14k		13k		9-10k		11.2k		9500
S&P	1200				1000		1300		950
Nasdaq					2000
Inflation
Unemployment	< 10%		9-9.5%				7		12ish

		12/31/09		Alltime High
Gold		1096.20		1226.00
Oil		79.36		147.27
DJIA		10428.05		14279.96
S&P		1115.10		1576.09
Nasdaq		2269.15		5132.52
Inflation		2.7
Unemployment		10

New Edit
DOW will end the year at 14,000. The masses will believe that Obama has saved us all. He will use every opportunity to tell us so.
However, unemployment will remain as it is in real values. There will be no real job growth. The government unemployment data will appear lower (I'll guess 7%) due to the people who have been on unemployment assistance for too long getting kicked off.
S&P will end at 1200.
Gold will drop near 1000, rise to 1200 during the summer, and stay around 1100 at the end of the year.
Nasdaq - I don't follow enough to know.
Oil will rise to 125 during summer.


Craig
DJIA-13k due to inflation.
S/P-don't follow.
Nasdaq-don't follow to close either.
Gold-1300 (inflation wise)
Oil-100
Unemployement: Nation 9.0-9.5%
Unemployement Michigan: 14.5-15%


Dave
Stocks and the dollar will continue to rally in the beginning of the year.
S&P will rise to 1300, then drop to 1000.
Dow will rise to 12k, drop to 9-10k.
Nasdaq rise to 2500, drop to 2000.
Oil will continue to rise and will definitely exceed 100 during the year (obviously it will skyrocket if the US or Israeli govt bombs Iran).
Gold not drop below $1000. Hits $1400.
Japanese stocks will start an uptrend in 2010 being one of the best investments of the decade.
Natural gas will do well in 2010
Interest rates will increase. US Treasurys will drop.
Shanghei index could be a bubble to pop in 2010


Xorp
dow30 - 11,200
s&p500 - 1,300
Oil - $79
Gold - $1,125


Eric    
Gold: $1100    
Oil:  $70    
DJIA: 9500   
S&P: 950   
Nasdaq: no guess
Inflation: no guess   
Unemployment: both Gov't numbers and real numbers will rise by a couple percent

The dollar index will strengthen slightly this year while stocks, oil, real estate, Government bonds, and gold will correct downward.  My feeling is that in 2010 an investor should feel lucky to preserve capital and forget about making capital gains.  I expect this to be a year in which every investment category drops.  Here's why,  some more of the dodgy debts of the boom will default.  Central banks for be inclined to print money as it is one of the only solutions they have left.  But the nominal value of most asset classes will decline because the money supply will shrink due to imploding debts faster than the central banks run the printing press.  Of course this will eventually change and the central banks will produce hyperinflation and then the government will start another war to channel the anger of populace outward.  The best investment in the years ahead will be the time spent in taking better care of your health and strengthening your relationships with friends and family.


Richard
Due to atrocious accuracy in his 2009 predictions and embarrassment being beat by a girl, he stated he will make predictions in December.


Scott
Being Canadian, has not made any predictions.

2010 Predictions

 A bit late in posting, but here are our predictions for 2010.  Not sure how to easily post a table to blogger, so hopefully this is readable.

	NewEd		Craig		Dave		Xorp		12/31/09		Alltime High
Gold	1200		1300		1400		1125		1096.20		1226.00
Oil	125		100		100		79		79.36		147.27
DJIA	14k		13k		9-10k		11.2k		10428.1		14279.96
S&P	1200				1000		1300		1115.1		1576.09
Nasdaq					2000				2269.15		5132.52
Inflation
Unemp.	< 10%		9-9.5%				7

New Edit
DOW will end the year at 14,000. The masses will believe that Obama has saved us all. He will use every opportunity to tell us so.
However, unemployment will remain as it is in real values. There will be no real job growth. The government unemployment data will appear lower (I'll guess 7%) due to the people who have been on unemployment assistance for too long getting kicked off.
S&P will end at 1200.
Gold will drop near 1000, rise to 1200 during the summer, and stay around 1100 at the end of the year.
Nasdaq - I don't follow enough to know.
Oil will rise to 125 during summer.


Craig
DJIA-13k due to inflation.
S/P-don't follow.
Nasdaq-don't follow to close either.
Gold-1300 (inflation wise)
Oil-100
Unemployement: Nation 9.0-9.5%
Unemployement Michigan: 14.5-15%


Dave
Stocks and the dollar will continue to rally in the beginning of the year.
S&P will rise to 1300, then drop to 1000.
Dow will rise to 12k, drop to 9-10k.
Nasdaq rise to 2500, drop to 2000.
Oil will continue to rise and will definitely exceed 100 during the year (obviously it will skyrocket if the US or Israeli govt bombs Iran).
Gold not drop below $1000. Hits $1400.
Japanese stocks will start an uptrend in 2010 being one of the best investments of the decade.
Natural gas will do well in 2010
Interest rates will increase. US Treasurys will drop.
Shanghei index could be a bubble to pop in 2010


Xorp
dow30 - 11,200
s&p500 - 1,300
Oil - $79
Gold - $1,125



Richard
Due to atrocious accuracy in his 2009 predictions and embarrassment being beat by a girl, he stated he will make predictions in December.

Another Prediction

At yesterday's meeting, Xorp predicted that Gold will drop in price during January. Somewhat of a broad prediction, but I'm still immortalizing his words here. Other than mentioning price manipulation by the IMF, he didn't divulge much of the reasoning behind the prediction.

Speaking of Predictions

At the beginning of the year, some of us made predictions regarding stocks & commodities for 2009. To easily track those predictions, I'm posting them here. Hopefully the chart format posts correctly.

	NewEd		Dave		EH		Xorp		MC		RM
Gold	750		> 1000		1350		1125		850		700
Oil	60		> 60				60				60
DJIA	8100		<7000				> 9800				4000
S&P	800		<700		744		> 1060		1300		400
Nasdaq	-		<1200
Inflation	4		9
Unempl	11		10				10				10

	12/31/08		Alltime High
Gold	856.40		1023.50
GLD eft	86.52		100.44
SLV eft	11.20		20.621
Oil	44.60		147.27
DJIA	8776.39		14279.96
S&P	930.25		1576.09
Nasdaq	1577.03		5132.52
Inflation	3.8
Unempl	7.2

New Edit
Gold - year end of $750, after having reached a high of $1100 in the summer
Oil - will fluctuate around $60
DJIA - year end 8100
S&P - year end 800
Nasdaq - don't follow enough to even attempt to guess
Inflation - will be reported at 4%, but this will be based on a new formula for calculating it
Unemployment - 11% (may also be subject to new counting methods)
The economy will continue to get worse but Obama will still be heralded as a great guy. He will say that "we are all in this together" and that part of the Hope And Change involves sacrificing for the good of the country.


Dave
My predictions are what the items will hit during the year, not necessarily the year end price. I think I may be too conservative. Gold may go over $1100 or $1200 but I don't think it will get much higher. DJIA may drop below 6000 but I don't think it will drop below 5000 and the S&P may drop below 600 but not 500. The Nasdaq is more volitile, so it could drop the most, but not under 800.

I'm not sure if Obama will get reelected. The republicans will put up a loser to run against him which will give him a good chance. But unlike Mark & Ken, I don't think he'll have high approval ratings. I believe all the "hope" of the Obama supporters will be dashed against the rocks. High unemployment & high inflation will cause a situation like Carter's and people will not be happy with him. If the republicans can somehow come up with a dynamic candidate, Obama will lose.


E.H.
For 2009 I'll predict $1350 for gold and a 20% decline in the S&P.


Xorp
I'll make a similar call as in the mid 90's and early 00's, though different asset class. Only the names and the asset class changes :-)
1) Clinton reelected coincident with economic inflationary boom (dot-com)
2) Bush II re-elected during period of inflationary boom (housing boom)

Since this new phase of monetary expansion (see the M1) coincides with a first term administration in DC, all other things being equal, I think the Obama administration will be hailed as economic geniuses towards the end of 2012, and will remain in power. Starting your first term coincident with the beginning of a new Central Bank inflationary/boom is like being dealt a royal flush. See Clinton/Bush calls above.

In 2000 it was the dot-com bubble, in 2006 it was the housing bubble, in 2012'ish I think it will be the alternative energy bubble. The derivatives market that will un-wind will be the "carbon credit" market. No matter what bubble popped, or pops next, all are technically credit induced by the central bank, only the underlying asset class changes with each new bubble (dot-com, housing, alt-energy).

The next bubble starts now, in alternative energy. Dot-com and housing are dead, never to be heard from again. How crazy is that?


Mark
Very interesting Ken,
I think you are on to something. My predictions tend to be more on the moneyed elites manipulating the price of gold much to the char grin of the Austrians. The fix is in. The powers that be won't make the Austrian case easy. We will be right in the end, but Rome fell for over 500 years. The new Rome has several rallies left.
gold- 850
S&P - 1300

On the geo-political side
Obama is definitely re-elected. We will get our first major spill over of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict in the US (someone will bring the fight across the ocean). Several years down the road...massive amounts of malinvestment will leave us with sparkling roads but no one can afford a car or gas.

I've been having a tough time predicting what will happen next. It's like playing monopoly and then a random guy (Federal Reserve) comes out of no where and knocks the game board off the table. Even better, it's like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football and Lucy pulls it away at the last minute. Charlie thinks (Federal Reserve encourages him in this direction) he figures out the problem so he buys new cleats. Sadly Charlie still doesn't kick the ball and now he has new shoes with no value....

Alt energy is definitely the bubble. I will attempt to ride it up and down.

S&P 999

At last Tuesday's meeting, Xorp predicted the S&P would close between 999 & 1000 on option expiration Friday 8/21/09. Immortalizing his words here. We shall see.