2011 Predictions

DOW
Dave - high 13500, low 10000, end 12400
Carrie - high 14500, low 10000, end 12000
Richard - 9500
Eric - 11500
Dan - 12650
Ken - 9000

S&P
Dave - high 1450, low 1000, end 1420
Richard - 1150
Dan - 1330
Ken - 950

NASDAQ
Dave - 2900
Eric - 2650
Dan - 2900
Ken - 1500

RUSSEL
Richard - 650

GOLD
Dave - corrects to 1200, end 1710
Carrie - falls in first quarter to 1265, summer 1475, end 1420
Richard - 1500
Eric - 1500
Dan - 1470
Ken - 1700

SILVER
Dave - 42
Carrie - 32
Eric - 32
Dan - 38
Ken - 25

OIL
Dave - 130
Eric - 80
Dan - 122

Ken - will reach 135 during 2011, but will end at 110

EURO
Eric - 1.10

BANK FAILURES
Dave - 98
Carrie - 187
Richard - 200
Dan - 142
Ken - 140

INFLATION (CPI)
Dave - 7%
Dan - 6%
Ken - CPI-U 9%

UNEMPLOYMENT
Dave - 9%
Carrie - 7%
Dan - 9.2%

Ken - U3 7%

Ken - U6 17%

DAAG
Carrie - DAAG solves the problem of property rights and becomes world-famous.
Dan - DAAG becomes a temporary political party, wins every election, and disbands the government.

OTHER
Dave - Japanese stocks and natural gas will do well this decade. Interest rates will increase. US Treasurys will drop. Detroit will declare bankruptcy. Housing will start to offer good buys. Euro tanks.
Carrie - housing falls to new lows
Richard - stagflation
Eric - general asset correction in next month or two in gold but especially industrial commodities. China slow down keeps oil low. US equity markets fall in 2011 but still out perform on a relative basis most other countries with possible exception of Japan.

Ken - My predictions are based on the assumption that the Fed will stop pumping based on inflation concerns. If inflation stays low, I think we will see QE III, and the markets will end higher (Dow 13,000, S&P500 1400, NASDAQ 3000). But that is not what I am predicting for years end 2011.

Note: If inflation becomes a concern for the Fed, I see no reason why the Federal Reserve will allow debt to be inflated away. They serve the big banks, not us, or the treasury. The long T-bond will continue it's decline (disclosure - Ken has a large position in TBT).

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Because we are a warm and tolerant bunch, we will accept late predictions up until the next meeting. Those who fail to make predictions by that time agree that they fail at life.

"Is there anything good about red tape?"

Fox 2 local news has a segment called "Job Shop with Murray Feldman" that features companies (or government agencies) that have job openings. Today, the lead-in to this segment was:
"Is there anything good about red tape? YES! It creates jobs." The story went on to say that some branch of government was hiring 300 call center agents to "help enforce compliance" with Obamacare. Unfortunately I couldn't find the clip on channel 2's website.
Should we tell them about the broken window fallacy?

2010 Predictions

Predictions from a year ago:

	NewEd		Craig		Dave		Xorp		Eric
DJIA	14000		13000		9-10k		11200		9500
S&P	1200				1000		1300		950
Nasdaq					2000
Gold	1200		1300		1400		1125		1100
Oil	125		100		100		79		70
Unemployment	10%		9-9.5%				7

The year end actual:
 

	12/31/10		Winner
DJIA	11577.51		Xorp
S&P	1257.64		Xorp
Nasdaq	2652.87		Dave
Gold	1420.85		Dave
Oil	93.31		Craig & Dave
Unemployment	9.4		Craig

Taking three categories, the winner - Dave.

Tied for 2nd - Craig & Xorp.

Followed by NewEdit and coming in last (of those brave enough to make predictions) Eric.

One may argue that my 2000 prediction on the Nasdaq was way off.  However my full prediction was that the Nasdaq would rise to 2500 then fall to 2000.  The Nasdaq closed above 2500 on 4/14/10, hit 2530 on 4/23/10, then proceeded to drop to 2091 on 7/2/10.  After nailing my prediction, the Nasdaq went on a 500 point rampage the last four months of the year.  The Dow & S&P acted similarly, coming very close to hitting my predictions of 12000 & 1300 for highs and 9000s & 1000 for lows.

Though they weren't included in our predictions, there were 157 bank failures in 2010 compared to 140 in 2009 and 25 in 2008.

Best & Brightest continued

The genius psych major deleted her FB posts. For a good laugh I cut & pasted them below.

She reminds me of Laurence Vance's axiom, "If [govt proponents] could spell correctly, use punctuation, and write worth a darn then maybe we would take them a little more seriously." Honestly, I feel sorry for her.



Forwarded conversation
Subject: Helga B. commented on Daniel W. Livingston's status.
------------------------
From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 7:43 PM

Helga wrote: "David-you are the prototype of someone who is headed for danger. The anxiety/depression sufferer who juggles numbers all day; stuck in a monotonous life so he fills it with grandiose imaginings. nothin incoherent about my post, even if it was filled with errors, the message is quite clear to you I'm sure. you need a good therapist. STAT. I have a degree in Psychology and 10+ yrs working with ppl of all abilities and limitations. your kind, the most dangerous because their is an imflated ego that is tough to get past. I hope you do. Peace be with you."

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From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 7:47 PM

Helga wrote: "I agree...one killing at a time would not be as big a news, but if it were to this scale with non-politicians...YES IT WOULD BE...the college capmus shooting did not involve politicans and they were covered just as much. when large numbers of ppl are involved in things,they make the news ....even the miners being resuced did...and it wasn't even in the US. I watched every one of them lifted up. Anyhow David...you need help. your thinking way way out; don't hold yourself in higher esteem because of it. you know darn well gov is needed...bet you'd call the cops (gov funded and run) if you needed them...you know your fantasy anarchy world can not exist. get yourself straightened out."

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From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 7:54 PM

Helga wrote: "so funny...a guy who makes his living processing papers to be turned into the gov (taxes)...with anti-gov rhetoric. how ironic."

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From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 8:02 PM

Helga wrote: ""govt is legalized violence" yes, police may shoot back if threatened...everything else about gov is aimed at stopping violence. Domestic violence laws; elder abuse laws; Adult Protective Services. I am anti-war because I beleive in this day and age there are other ways to deal (stop trading with enemies; stop buying their products) with enemies that sending our young to die...aside from war....I do not see how gov is legalized violence. you are way out there David and it is that kind of BS that makes someone who is probably intelligent a waste...A MIND IS A TERRIBLE THING TO WASTE. Put your efforts to good use if you claim to be a Christian. There are laws upheld throughout the bible. Why be another loose cannon in society?"

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From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 8:03 PM

Helga wrote: "what a crock of sht"

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From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 8:10 PM

Helga wrote: "read Walden Two David...or perhaps you have already...and then close the book and be doen with the fantasy, because such a place will never exist. it did not in biblical times, it will never. Gov regulates everything; if a doctor ever saves you life or that of a loved one, thabk your gov because it set standards for that doctor to get his license...stop with the mindless anarchy crap. put effort into good governing rather than the idea of no governing. or are you going to just handle the entire country for everyone (good grief)"

---------
From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 9:02 PM

Helga wrote: "The media covered the college campus shootings and no gov employees were harmed there. The media covers things when they are on such a grand scale. The anti-gov stance is BS. Gov is not legalized violence; it sets domestic violence laws; elder abuse laws; police may only use force as a last resort; it serves and protects. Don't be a nutbag; a mind is a terrible thing to waste. What a waste of effort...read Walden Two (a governmentless utopia) I studied it extensively when I studied Social Psychology (my BA is in Psych), infact I kept the book bcs I enjoyed it and still have the A paper I wrote on it....but then close the book David; close the book on the fantasy because such a place has never existed and never will."

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From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 9:44 PM

Helga wrote: "I'm not a psychologist; I work with adults with disabilites and have for over ten yrs. I deleted those post, but am glad you read them. Why delete them? bcs it saddens me that ppl like you exist and I have realized it is near impossible to get through to your type. Your issues are clear and I certainly hope you get help for them...such an incredbile waste of a mind. The number cruncher type like you often see thing in balck and white and can't see shades of grey. The best thing for you would probably to volunteer in some sort of social service organization funded by the gov so you can see the other side of the coin. I have no need to defend myself to you and ...if you know psychologists, I wish you would have opened yourself to their services....very inflated ego for you to suggest psychs are "messed up"...in what capacity have you encountered them? Or are you just trying to insult me...I dedicate my life to the wellbeing of ppl with disabilites David. I'm tough...no muber cruncher can penetrate that on some fb posts. Get help. It is obvious you suffer w anxiety and depression issues, but your success wil be didcated by your willingness to be trreated; highly unlikely from what I can tell."

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From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 9:47 PM

Helga wrote: ""muber cruncher"....hahaha yeah, I type very fast so typos abound.. I'm sure it's legible though. Ppl anti-authority are the most dangerous type in any and all societies."

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From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 10:03 PM

Helga wrote: ""Proving once again that govt work attracts the best and brightest of society is this Facebook post. Internet forums, especially one like Facebook, aren't the best media for in-depth rational discourse, but still." SO THIS IS WHAT YOU DO HUH DAVID...YOU TAKE PPLS comments out of context on fb and post them to your anarchy blog page? I'm not a gov employee you a**..I work for a nonprofit that helps ppl who are living with severe limitations. You think you have me pegged somehow huh? You are a disgrace to America."

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From: Facebook
Date: Sun, Jan 9, 2011 at 10:09 PM

Helga wrote: "You certainly are a " Slippery Pencil" alright David. If you want to post something post a link to this entire dialogue..so ppl can read YOUR part...like how you posted "The shooting of a few govt employees is far from a national tragedy, it's blowback.""

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Hey genius, I did post a link to the entire dialog. However, since you deleted your 11 idiotic posts, it's not really the entire dialog you desire.

Govt Employees - The Best & Brightest of Society

Proving once again that govt work attracts the best and brightest of society is this Facebook post.  Internet forums, especially one like Facebook, aren't the best media for in-depth rational discourse, but still. 

Helga B.: wtf??? The is no utopia like in Walden Two...I SURE AM GLAD I LIVE IN A LAND WITH GOV AND LAWS. ppl need boudaries. "force and coercion" whatever the F you want to call it. visit a prison and learn what kind of heinous crimes go on even wit...h boundaries. consider places with less of them..nations in Africa, for ex, where women are mutilated because their are no laws protecting them..who wants to think of their mother, sister, daughter's parts sewn shut by some crazy villagers...anarchy. that is some wicked twisted thinking. noting more immoral than someone who knows nothing about the human psyche preaching F'in anarchy. sick sick sick. FIND WHERE ON EARTH THAT TWISTED SHIT WORKS AND MOVE THERE PLEASE. I've been in social work for 10+ yrs and known parents to beat their mentally ill childen thinking they can BEAT mental illness out of their child...until DYFS stepped in....gov law boundaries...Social Workers like me ALL A VITAL NECESSITY.....see a therapist please..before you go wacko on us. (http://www.facebook.com/BacchusA2/posts/188990977794597)

 These people are scary.

QEII Explained

Detroit Public Schools (DPS)

Three weeks ago, Mish predicted that the city of Detroit and the DPS system would both file bankruptcy in 2011 (http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/12/detroit-mayor-plans-to-halt-garbage.html).

In the three weeks since Mish's article, The Detroit Federation of Teachers (the local teachers union) has prepared a report to present to the DPS titled "The Detroit Federation of Teachers Proposals for Paying Off the Detroit Public Schools Legacy Deficit coauthored by P. F., Financial Analyst and David Weigel, CPA."  Yes, in what could possibly be the most shocking event in my life, a teachers union requested my input on averting a financial crisis. 

While it may be too late no matter what they do, my most beneficial suggestions - abolish the whole system, make the parents responsible for the children, let the free market provide solutions, declare bankruptcy - are not included in the report.  Suggestions of mine were: competition/school choice, charter schools, cutting bureaucracy, pay cuts, teacher accountability, embracing Teach for America, and revamping health insurance benefits.

Sadly, due to bureaucracy and union politics, I doubt any of the suggestions will see light of day.  We'll have to wait and see.